Villaraigosa Out? Not so fast…

Compared to the large field of the Attorney General race, the Democratic gubernatorial race is about as lively as a coma patient.  Only one candidate - San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom - has entered the ring, with two others seriously considering running…or is it only one?  Will it be just Gavin and Jerry Brown?

No go Antonio: Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa isn’t going to run for governor - at least not in 2010.

Our sources in L.A. say Villaraigosa has come to the conclusion that the time is just not right for him to make a state run - given that he hasn’t even been sworn in yet to a second term, and that he’s facing bloody political fights at home.  (Matier & Ross)

Between the cads at Los Angeles Magazine, the Solar 8, and Carmen Trutanich it seems everyone is taking a grinder to my Mayor’s sheen.  That is, if you believe everything you read in the paper - always a dicey proposition.  Now the Chronicle’s Matier & Ross are doing their bit, too.

But as I noted on Twitter from the launch of the Parent Revolution, there are many places where Villaraigosa is welcomed as a hero.  So it seems a little early to be writing him off as a contender.  And his folks are certainly not letting a couple of columnists in an opponenet’s hometown paper run him out of the race:

Is Villaraigosa in or out?

People close to Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa this morning dismissed a report in the San Francisco Chronicle that he had decided not to run for governor in 2010.

Villaraigosa insiders said the mayor has still not made a decision.  (LA Times)

I’ve talked about this with higher-ups in the camps of Villaraigosa’s potential opponents.  Some anticipate his not entering the race.  Others only allow for it, but are looking at how it reshapes the field.

I for one am dubious about these rumors, as I’ve heard of (and actually witnessed) folks close to the Mayor propositioning operatives key to President Obama’s campaign in California (and nationally).  Maybe a surprising decision is on the way, but if it is someone better tell Antonio’s folks soon - so they’re not left hanging as late-comers, when everyone else has chosen sides!

Zuma Dogg for California Attorney General?

Did the crowded field to replace Jerry Brown as California’s Attorney General just pick up yet another candidate?  Venice Beach’s own Zuma Dogg - who garnered over 9,000 votes against Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa - is hinting at a run for the state’s “top cop” position in recent tweets.

The Attorney General race on the Democratic Party side is already ridiculously crowded.  Six candidates from across the state have already announced their intention to run and are amassing cash and endorsements:

• Los Angeles City Attorney Rocky Delgadillo
• San Francisco District Attorney Kamala Harris
• Assembly Members Ted Lieu, Pedro Nava and Alberto Torrico
• Facebook Chief Privacy Officer Chris Kelly

So, does Zuma Dogg mean it?  Is he really considering a statewide run to follow on his surprisingly successful local campaign?

UPDATE: Apparently this is the shortest campaign ever.  Zuma Dogg is ineligible for an Attorney General run:

Watch This: California Forward’s “Force for Change”

Video shown at the LWVC Biennial Convention in Long Beach May 2009 with keynote dinner speaker Bob Hertzberg.

Watch This: Smithsonian Call to Action - Voice Your Vision

In honor of Night at the Museum: battle of the Smithsonian - which I took my two boys to this weekend - check out:

Smithsonian: Call to Action - Voice Your Vision

How Much Will Newsom ‘Buck the System’ On Twitter?

Sole (announced) Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gavin Newsom is taking his Twitter followers out for a spin.

Much has been written on the success Newsom’s found on the microblogging site; amassing a huge number of followers, announcing his campaign via Tweet and doing much of the thumbwork himself.

In the next week, I’ll have a piece that’ll make you look at follower numbers a little differently (and not just Gavin’s).  But in the meantime, let’s watch as Newsom test drives these folks and sees what he can get out of them.

Because this is where the rubber meets the road.

Newsom is asking for a small contribution from his 425,563 Followers, sending them to a fundraising page with a goal of 500 donors at five bucks a pop.

In the two post-Tweet hours, 84 cointrubtors have given a total of $1,048.

I’ll update periodically with new totals, and welcome speculation in the comments about how much this ask turns into…

Gavin Newsom: The Humphrey Bogart of California Politics

Twitter user @SGourley raises an interesting point about search engines, public personas, and political aspirations by offering the instructions seen to the right.

Following those instructions (running a google image search on “gavin newsom“), you’re greeted with a number of views of the honorable Mayor of San Francisco: taking the oath of office, eating a reporter’s microphone (where’s the video of that one?), lounging with his former wife, smiling with his wonderful new bride, looking goofy in a T-Shirt, looking strong behind a podium, and - shall we say - looking amused in the “3rd Result” that @SGourley is focusing on.

@SGourley assumes that Newsom would want rid of such a picture.  But with Garry South - Newsom’s campaign guru (and a guru of mine) - talking up every reporter in his speed dial about Jerry Brown’s time in office (code for “the other guy’s old!”), maybe Newsom wants pictures like this out there.

Part of the allure of a candidate like Newsom (and even stick-in-the-mud Barack Obama) is that there’s a certain brash danger that comes with a handsome young leader.  The swagger.  The knowing smirk.  It’s like Humphrey Bogart is running for office; a drink in one hand, a smoke in the other, and a remit envelop in the inside pocket of his suit.

In fact, the Newsom photo actually reminded me of a famous picture of Bogart.  Out on the town with Lauren Bacall, Bogie found himself face to - ahem - face with Marilyn Monroe.

Bogart’s got a few years on Newsom, and is playing it cooler…

…but there’s that look.

The handrolling of the cigarette is certainly more than any politician could ever muster, because of California’s modern smoking laws and the fact that there will only ever be one Humphrey Bogart.

But, the look is the same.

Which brings me to of another famous photo from that era (and the moral of the story).  Sophia Loren and Jayne Mansfield.

The eyeline is the same, but the meaning is completely different.  I’m guessing Lauren Bacall laid the same look on Monroe just after this photo was taken.

And while a Google image search of Jennifer Siebel Newsom turned up no similar shot, take this as a word of warning.

Female Newsom supporters: you probably won’t get the Bogie look, but the Loren look is always right there in your face - or wherever.

UPDATED:  I took the time and tracked down a short clip of Newsom eating a reporter’s microphone mentioned above - a still of which appears in the “gavin newsom” image search @SGourley is talking about.  Oh Gavin, you cad!

David Plouffe or Mitch Stewart: Who’s more of a pill? (Watch and decide)

Organizing for America, the nationwide undertaking that picks up where the Obama campaign left off, has a video out today encouraging folks to join their Pledge Project in support of President Obama’s budget and program blueprint.

The video is in the stlye of Obama for America campaign manager David Plouffe’s frequent and popular webcam updates - right down to the compelling delivery.

Mitch Stewart, Director of the new OfA, hits all the thrilling Plouffe-ian notes:  The stoic, staid monotone.  The mind-nimbingly spartan slides.  Art direction consisting of Obama signs and maps on office walls.

Nothing like sticking to what works, eh?

So look at the video above and the one below and tell me, who’s more boring Plouffe or Stewart?  And does it matter if they continue to be so successful?

Young Progressive Majority Hosts Obama In Los Angeles

Usually, I consider myself in the loop about the comings and goings of President Obama in Los Angeles.  After all, I work for the campaign’s State Director for California, Mitchell Schwartz.  People count on me to know this stuff.

But somehow I missed the President holding an LA Town Hall with Obama.

Oh.  Wait.  Never mind.

Watching it again, I figured out that they were just cutting footage from the President’s first press conference together with footage of actors faking questions to him.  It’s really a GOTV piece from Young Progressive Majority for the Los Angeles elections taking place on Tuesday, March 3, 2009.

So, check out Jordan Carlos, Lauren Weedman, Christopher Redman, Marguerite Moreau, Marty Dusig, Enuka Okuma, and Cara Pifko in a piece produced by Raul Gasteazoro & Luke Frydenger and directed by Bryan Carmel.

If you feel like reliving the magic of the real East Room press conference, here it is…

Newsom Tweets New Baby, Will @GavinNewsom Be On The Birth Certificate?

The 2008 election cycle elicited amazing new uses of technology in politics.

It’s only February ‘09, but we’ve now seen where the 2010 election cycle is heading…

San Francisco Mayor (and California Gubernatorial explorer) Gavin Newsom Tweeted his impending fatherhood.

Economy is important when you only have 140 characters to share something as special as your first baby, so let’s break down the message:

1. Going to be a father
2. Wife is pregnant
3. Very excited/proud

The first line is the news.

The second clears up a major question - imagine the field day Drudge would have if the Mayor was carrying the child!

The third shows that he’s not some out-of-touch, San Franciscan, liberal, child-hating elitist.  Nope.  He’s stoked.

And I’m stoked for him.

Congratulations, Mayor Newsom…but please don’t put @GavinNewsom on the birth certificate.

SF Chronicle: For Brown and Newsom, Age Is Just a Number (of Facebook friends)

A line of differentiation is appearing in the California Gubernatorial Primary.

It’s a generational line.

Emboldened by the hip young cat who brushed off claims of inexperience and won the White House, the exploratory campaign of San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom (Born: 1967) is making no bones about casting their main opponent - Attorney General Jerry Brown (Born: Before the Earth cooled) - as old…

“This will no doubt be the first governor’s race in California history - if not nationally - where one candidate sat on the other candidate’s lap as a little kid,” crows Newsom political consultant Garry South…  (San Francisco Chronicle)

…or out of touch:

“The question that I think Californians will have to come to grips with is, does California need the same governor in 2011 that it had in 1975?” said Newsom strategist Garry South.  (Los Angeles Times)

Oh, that Garry South.  Such a trouble maker.

Who knows if this line of attack works?  We’re not talking about John McCain here.  This is Jerry Brown - a very different opponent to label as old or out of touch.

That didn’t stop the Chronicle from looking for age spots on Brown’s campaign techniques:

Example: the dramatic disparity between Brown and Newsom on the social networking site, Facebook, a spectacularly successful fundraising and networking tool for President Obama’s campaign.

Newsom has launched an effort to raise “30,000 supporters in 30 days,” already amassing more than 25,000 contacts on his Facebook site, with 300-400 more signing up daily. Brown, son of the late Gov. Edmund G. “Pat” Brown, has less than 700 Facebook contacts.

The San Francisco mayor has used Facebook, Twitter, his Web site and blogs (on Daily Kos and Huffington Post) - all tools that appeal to younger voters - to attract hundreds of people around the state to town hall meetings in the past month.  (San Francisco Chronicle)

Here are a few bones I have to pick with this analysis…

First, recent Pew findings deflate the “internet is for young folks” myth:

Contrary to the image of Generation Y as the “Net Generation,” internet users in their 20s do not dominate every aspect of online life. Generation X is the most likely group to bank, shop, and look for health information online. Boomers are just as likely as Generation Y to make travel reservations online. And even Silent Generation internet users are competitive when it comes to email (although teens might point out that this is proof that email is for old people).  (Pew Internet and American Life Project)

Next, all of the candidates; Newsom, Brown, Garamendi and Villaraigosa are on Facebook.  You can also find Antonio, John, Jerry and Gavin on Twitter.  I’ve seen several of them as authors on prominent blogs, and all are tapping their respective email lists.

Finally, victory isn’t as simple as merely using the tools, or amassing high friend-counts on the SocNets.  It’s about establishing bi-directional communication, speaking in the language of the web (which changes daily), and showing something authentic to the online community’s magnificently well-honed bullshit detector.

Take the Facebook numbers cited in the Chronicle…

When his campaign launched this friendraiser, Newsom already had about 23,000 supporters banked.  In the two weeks since - with active outreach on Facebook and multiple blasts to their email lists - they’ve climbed to just over 27,000.  Growth of 4,000 (about 17%) over two weeks.  Not too shabby.

On the other hand, Jerry Brown had only 400 friends and change when he dropped his 25 Random Things list at the end of last week.  In the week since, Jerry has shot up to over 1,500 friends (over 350% growth) with little extra effort.  His novelty and authenticity also earned several earned media hits in meatspace.

The raw numbers are still very much on Newsom’s side, but Brown’s tapping of the meme-of-the-moment had a dramatic effect on the reach of his online community.  For that instant, it was Brown who was more fluent in the language of the web.

Online Organizing is not unlike Field Organizing; The Grind does matter.  But catching that imaginative spark - riding that wave of the internet zeitgeist - can supercharge you in bursts.

Staying open to those memes and turning those bursts into your Grind is how you dominate.

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