Villaraigosa Out? Not so fast…

Compared to the large field of the Attorney General race, the Democratic gubernatorial race is about as lively as a coma patient.  Only one candidate - San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom - has entered the ring, with two others seriously considering running…or is it only one?  Will it be just Gavin and Jerry Brown?

No go Antonio: Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa isn’t going to run for governor - at least not in 2010.

Our sources in L.A. say Villaraigosa has come to the conclusion that the time is just not right for him to make a state run - given that he hasn’t even been sworn in yet to a second term, and that he’s facing bloody political fights at home.  (Matier & Ross)

Between the cads at Los Angeles Magazine, the Solar 8, and Carmen Trutanich it seems everyone is taking a grinder to my Mayor’s sheen.  That is, if you believe everything you read in the paper - always a dicey proposition.  Now the Chronicle’s Matier & Ross are doing their bit, too.

But as I noted on Twitter from the launch of the Parent Revolution, there are many places where Villaraigosa is welcomed as a hero.  So it seems a little early to be writing him off as a contender.  And his folks are certainly not letting a couple of columnists in an opponenet’s hometown paper run him out of the race:

Is Villaraigosa in or out?

People close to Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa this morning dismissed a report in the San Francisco Chronicle that he had decided not to run for governor in 2010.

Villaraigosa insiders said the mayor has still not made a decision.  (LA Times)

I’ve talked about this with higher-ups in the camps of Villaraigosa’s potential opponents.  Some anticipate his not entering the race.  Others only allow for it, but are looking at how it reshapes the field.

I for one am dubious about these rumors, as I’ve heard of (and actually witnessed) folks close to the Mayor propositioning operatives key to President Obama’s campaign in California (and nationally).  Maybe a surprising decision is on the way, but if it is someone better tell Antonio’s folks soon - so they’re not left hanging as late-comers, when everyone else has chosen sides!

How Much Will Newsom ‘Buck the System’ On Twitter?

Sole (announced) Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gavin Newsom is taking his Twitter followers out for a spin.

Much has been written on the success Newsom’s found on the microblogging site; amassing a huge number of followers, announcing his campaign via Tweet and doing much of the thumbwork himself.

In the next week, I’ll have a piece that’ll make you look at follower numbers a little differently (and not just Gavin’s).  But in the meantime, let’s watch as Newsom test drives these folks and sees what he can get out of them.

Because this is where the rubber meets the road.

Newsom is asking for a small contribution from his 425,563 Followers, sending them to a fundraising page with a goal of 500 donors at five bucks a pop.

In the two post-Tweet hours, 84 cointrubtors have given a total of $1,048.

I’ll update periodically with new totals, and welcome speculation in the comments about how much this ask turns into…

Twitter Updates for 2009-05-11

• Oh, Jerry! RT @rubles01: Couldn’t even get off the pullup machine before Jerry Brown changed the weights on me. Impatient much Mr. AG? #
• Teaser for Modern Warfare 2: http://modernwarfare2.infinityward.com/ #
• Only logical that POTUS wants Trek screening at the White House http://tinyurl.com/pw47q2 #
• Back in The OC to rap with McLevin about clean tech conference. It’s hard to pass Disneyland without pulling off. #

Newsom Tweets New Baby, Will @GavinNewsom Be On The Birth Certificate?

The 2008 election cycle elicited amazing new uses of technology in politics.

It’s only February ‘09, but we’ve now seen where the 2010 election cycle is heading…

San Francisco Mayor (and California Gubernatorial explorer) Gavin Newsom Tweeted his impending fatherhood.

Economy is important when you only have 140 characters to share something as special as your first baby, so let’s break down the message:

1. Going to be a father
2. Wife is pregnant
3. Very excited/proud

The first line is the news.

The second clears up a major question - imagine the field day Drudge would have if the Mayor was carrying the child!

The third shows that he’s not some out-of-touch, San Franciscan, liberal, child-hating elitist.  Nope.  He’s stoked.

And I’m stoked for him.

Congratulations, Mayor Newsom…but please don’t put @GavinNewsom on the birth certificate.

SF Chronicle: For Brown and Newsom, Age Is Just a Number (of Facebook friends)

A line of differentiation is appearing in the California Gubernatorial Primary.

It’s a generational line.

Emboldened by the hip young cat who brushed off claims of inexperience and won the White House, the exploratory campaign of San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom (Born: 1967) is making no bones about casting their main opponent - Attorney General Jerry Brown (Born: Before the Earth cooled) - as old…

“This will no doubt be the first governor’s race in California history - if not nationally - where one candidate sat on the other candidate’s lap as a little kid,” crows Newsom political consultant Garry South…  (San Francisco Chronicle)

…or out of touch:

“The question that I think Californians will have to come to grips with is, does California need the same governor in 2011 that it had in 1975?” said Newsom strategist Garry South.  (Los Angeles Times)

Oh, that Garry South.  Such a trouble maker.

Who knows if this line of attack works?  We’re not talking about John McCain here.  This is Jerry Brown - a very different opponent to label as old or out of touch.

That didn’t stop the Chronicle from looking for age spots on Brown’s campaign techniques:

Example: the dramatic disparity between Brown and Newsom on the social networking site, Facebook, a spectacularly successful fundraising and networking tool for President Obama’s campaign.

Newsom has launched an effort to raise “30,000 supporters in 30 days,” already amassing more than 25,000 contacts on his Facebook site, with 300-400 more signing up daily. Brown, son of the late Gov. Edmund G. “Pat” Brown, has less than 700 Facebook contacts.

The San Francisco mayor has used Facebook, Twitter, his Web site and blogs (on Daily Kos and Huffington Post) - all tools that appeal to younger voters - to attract hundreds of people around the state to town hall meetings in the past month.  (San Francisco Chronicle)

Here are a few bones I have to pick with this analysis…

First, recent Pew findings deflate the “internet is for young folks” myth:

Contrary to the image of Generation Y as the “Net Generation,” internet users in their 20s do not dominate every aspect of online life. Generation X is the most likely group to bank, shop, and look for health information online. Boomers are just as likely as Generation Y to make travel reservations online. And even Silent Generation internet users are competitive when it comes to email (although teens might point out that this is proof that email is for old people).  (Pew Internet and American Life Project)

Next, all of the candidates; Newsom, Brown, Garamendi and Villaraigosa are on Facebook.  You can also find Antonio, John, Jerry and Gavin on Twitter.  I’ve seen several of them as authors on prominent blogs, and all are tapping their respective email lists.

Finally, victory isn’t as simple as merely using the tools, or amassing high friend-counts on the SocNets.  It’s about establishing bi-directional communication, speaking in the language of the web (which changes daily), and showing something authentic to the online community’s magnificently well-honed bullshit detector.

Take the Facebook numbers cited in the Chronicle…

When his campaign launched this friendraiser, Newsom already had about 23,000 supporters banked.  In the two weeks since - with active outreach on Facebook and multiple blasts to their email lists - they’ve climbed to just over 27,000.  Growth of 4,000 (about 17%) over two weeks.  Not too shabby.

On the other hand, Jerry Brown had only 400 friends and change when he dropped his 25 Random Things list at the end of last week.  In the week since, Jerry has shot up to over 1,500 friends (over 350% growth) with little extra effort.  His novelty and authenticity also earned several earned media hits in meatspace.

The raw numbers are still very much on Newsom’s side, but Brown’s tapping of the meme-of-the-moment had a dramatic effect on the reach of his online community.  For that instant, it was Brown who was more fluent in the language of the web.

Online Organizing is not unlike Field Organizing; The Grind does matter.  But catching that imaginative spark - riding that wave of the internet zeitgeist - can supercharge you in bursts.

Staying open to those memes and turning those bursts into your Grind is how you dominate.

25 Random Things About Jerry Brown

California Attorney General (and gubernatorial candidate) Jerry Brown is the latest person to succumb to the 25 Random Things craze that’s sweeping across Facebook.

How did I know this?  I saw a Tweet on the JerryBrown2010 Twitter profile.

6. My official portrait as Governor was quite controversial and the legislature refused to hang it. My Father said if I didn’t get a new one, I could never run again. It is now hanging and I am still running.  (Facebook: Jerry Brown’s 25 Random Things)

Embracing the latest meme sensation and promoting it through the hot new social medium (at least among hack and flack elites) is a defiant response to those critics who wonder “does California need the same governor in 2011 that it had in 1975?” as my old boss Garry South recently put it.

Does tapping new channels to communicate with voters indicate that Brown would not be the same governor he was in the days before many of Facebook’s most fervent users were born?

Does use of young technology demonstrate a young spirit?  Does use of a fresh political medium show a mind open to fresh policy ideas?

Now, after two years as state attorney general, this Democrat who first ran for office in the era of Janis Joplin and the Beatles is remaking himself yet again. This time, Brown’s quest is to recapture the job he won 35 years ago: governor of California.

But Brown is already facing a quandary that could bedevil him in this, his 12th campaign: How does a man so closely identified with California’s past show that he is best fit to lead the troubled state into the future?  (LA Times)

If the answer to the haters isn’t in the use of such technology, maybe an answer lies within the 25 Random Things.  I’ve pulled a few out below:

I’ve seen lists of “25 Random Things About Me” that people are sending around Facebook. I thought I would share my own list with you.

3. In 1958, I took vows of poverty, chastity, and obedience. Later, Pope John XXIII dispensed me from these obligations.

12. I worked with Mother Theresa in India at the Home for the Dying.

14. I sued Richard Nixon’s lawyer for helping the President cheat on his income tax.

18. I knocked my opponent to the canvas in a 3 round boxing match at Senior Fight Night.

Those few items show a leader of restraint and compassion; who respects the rule of law; and who will put on gloves and throw blows.  But perhaps the most salient of the 25 Things is number 24:

24. The first time I became Governor, I followed an Actor (Ronald Reagan).

The whole list is absolutely worth checking out.  Brown leads a life unlike any officeholder.  So head over to Jerry Brown’s Notes on Facebook, and see what he has to say.

Ed. Note - Jerry’s not the only one Twittering.  If you want to follow Reelpolitik’s tweets, find them at http://www.Twitter.com/Reelpolitik.  Also, I will NOT be doing 25 Random Things.

Antonio Villaraigosa (Re)Launches Campaign Site (Not for Governor)

Next month, voters in Los Angeles will go to the polls and re-elect Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa for a second term.

Sorry to burst your bubble, Zuma Dogg.

With all that campaigning left ahead of him, the Mayor has decided to tap these newfangled internets and do some of that online organizing that worked so well for our new President.

The bottom line is this: my site is your site. The slogan of this campaign is “bringing people together, getting things done,” and in the new world of online campaigning a website can provide just the place to make that happen. I hope you’ll join us there and get involved.  (from Villaraigosa email blast)

Check out his site: Antonio Villaraigosa for Los Angeles.

The Mayor is also encamped in the usual spots you see politicians these days:

• Antonio Villaraigosa on Facebook
• Antonio Villaraigosa on YouTube
• Antonio Villaraigosa on Flickr
• Antonio Villaraigosa on LinkedIn
• Antonio Villaraigosa on MySpace
• Antonio Villaraigosa on Twitter

Some cynics may question the utility of launching a campaign website so late in your election cycle.  Surely, it isn’t related to a certain 2010 race the Mayor is likely to enter.  This couldn’t possibly be just a warm up for a bigger campaign, right?

A Note About the Re-Runs

If you’re a reader or subscriber and are wondering why I’m posting clips from 2006 campaigns, here’s why:

At some point a while back, I decided to take YouTube up on it’s increased file size allowances and re-upload a number of clips from back in the day,  when there was a 100 MB limit.

I’m finally getting around to actually doing it.

Enjoy some oldies but (hopefully) goodies, like this piece from a Southern California tour with then-State Treasurer Phil Angelides - who is now emailing his ass off for the Apollo Alliance (which has nothing to do with Battlestar Galactica).

Funny Money - Rick Jacobs’ Courage Campaign Passes Counterfeit “Arnold Bucks”

Here’s the latest creative effort from our good friends at the Courage Campaign Issues Committee, calling attention to Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s sending Californinans IOU’s instead of much needed aid or tax refunds.

Many Californians are so overwhelmed by this paralyzing crisis that they’ve just tuned it out. As a result, Arnold is not being held accountable for his failure to lead.

That’s why we decided to try something a bit unorthodox — raise awareness by using humor to highlight the absurdity of these IOU’s, or what we are calling “Arnoldbucks.”

We asked one of our members to see what would happen if he tried to use “Arnoldbucks” as legal tender at a few businesses in the area. You won’t believe what happened. It’s all caught on camera — even a few security cams.

Know a friend who might need a laugh? Share this video with them, download your own Arnoldbucks below, then tell us your ideas.  (Courage Campaign: Arnold Bucks)

My favorite part: “The State of California would gladly pay you Tuesday for a cheeseburger today.”

Arnold can haz cheezburger?

Lt. Governor John Garamendi - Basque Barbecue

At the 31st Annual Basque Barbecue held at his ranch, California Lt. Governor John Garamendi talks about the importance of community and the need for all Californians - especially their representatives in Sacramento - to rise to the challenges we face in these trying times.

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